Japan domestic cargo traffic volume down for 5th consecutive year but leveling off

Nittsu Research Institute and Consulting, Inc. (Takayoshi Ide, President), a think tank subsidiary of Nippon Express Co., Ltd., has recently published "Prospects for the Economy and Cargo Traffic in FY2004."

Economy

The global economy has been gaining upward momentum since the second half of last year and the economies of the US, Europe, and Asia, despite reasons for concern in each, appear poised to achieve higher growth than last year.

Japan's economy is continuing down the path toward economic recovery and is expected to grow by 3.1%, on par with the previous year.

Domestic cargo traffic

Total domestic cargo traffic volume is believed to have dropped by 2.1% in FY2003 because of a continuing slump in construction-related cargo due to diminished public investment.

Despite forecasts for continued weakness in construction-related cargo in FY2004, increases can be anticipated in production-related and consumption-related cargo. Although total traffic volume is expected to drop by 0.4%, marking the fifth consecutive down year, the decline does seem to be leveling off.

International cargo traffic

With Asian cargo traffic still expanding, exports of foreign trade container goods in eight major ports are likely to maintain a positive tone overall in FY2004 with an increase of 5.8%. Imports are expected to climb by 4.7% against a backdrop of recovering domestic demand.

Exports of international air cargo such as digital home appliances, ICs, and semiconductor manufacturing equipment are on course to increase by 10.5% in FY2004, about the same level as the preceding year. Expected expansions in plant investment and individual consumption have also produced a forecast of 6.5% growth, a year-on-year rise, for imports.