WMS and Fulfilment Service for Shopify by Nippon Express
WMS and Fulfilment Service for Shopify by Nippon Express
BLOG 2025/07/31
If you work in e-commerce logistics, then you know the drill. Some days, everything runs like a well-oiled machine. But then a supplier misses a deadline, the warehouse gets overwhelmed, or a new product suddenly goes viral, leaving you scrambling to pick up the pieces. The old way of doing things—with stable supply chains and predictable forecasts—just doesn't work anymore. The truth is, uncertainty is the new normal.
The good news is that you don't need to eliminate the chaos; you just need to be ready for it. This guide will show you how to identify the three main types of logistics uncertainty and, more importantly, how to build a resilient operation.
Uncertainty isn’t just a minor inconvenience. It can hit your bottom line, frustrate your customers, and damage your brand. Here’s a quick overview of the three main types you might face:
| Type of Uncertainty | What It Means | Common Triggers | Impact on Your Business |
|---|---|---|---|
| Internal | Risks from inside your business—your team, tech, or processes |
Staffing Shortages: Illness or turnover leaving you shorthanded during peak times. Tech Failures: A software bug or network outage bringing operations to a halt. Process Bottlenecks: Outdated approval systems or unclear standard operating procedures (SOPs) slowing everything down. Compliance Lapses: Missed quality checks or failure to meet regulatory requirements leading to fines or recalls. |
Delays, errors, higher costs, unhappy customers |
| External | Risks from outside forces—suppliers, competitors, regulations, global events |
Supplier Delays: Weather, strikes, or political events disrupting your supply chain. Competitive Moves: A rival slashing prices or launching a disruptive new product. Regulatory Changes: New tariffs, import/export laws, or data privacy laws (e.g., GDPR) forcing rapid adaptation. Natural Disasters/Global Events: Floods, fires, pandemics, or geopolitical shifts directly impacting your operations. |
Stockouts, cost spikes, lost market share |
| Demand | Risks from unpredictable customer behavior |
Viral Trends: A product exploding on social media, overwhelming your fulfillment team. Sudden Demand Drops: A bad review, a product recall, or a new competitor causing sales to plummet. Shifting Preferences: Customers increasingly wanting faster shipping, more sustainable products, or personalized experiences. Unforeseen Events: External factors (like a heatwave for AC units) causing unexpected demand surges or drops. |
Stockouts, excess inventory, lost sales, brand damage |
Imagine this: it’s your busiest sales period, and your website crashes. Orders stop, your team loses track of inventory, and customers start complaining. Or, a sudden geopolitical event halts shipping through a key trade route, leaving you scrambling for alternatives while your competitor keeps delivering. Or maybe your best-selling product goes viral, but you run out of stock and miss out on huge sales.
If you don’t get ahead of these risks, you’re not just losing money—you’re risking your reputation and your future growth.
For years, the gold standard in supply chain management was Just-in-Time (JIT). This lean, highly efficient philosophy aimed to minimize inventory and costs by receiving goods only as they were needed. It worked beautifully in a stable, predictable world.
But that world no longer exists.
Recent global disruptions have exposed the fragility of JIT, forcing a fundamental shift towards a more resilient approach: Just-in-Case (JIC).
Example:
During the pandemic, companies with JIC strategies (extra inventory, backup suppliers) kept fulfilling orders while others faced weeks-long delays.
Key Takeaway:
Today, many businesses use a hybrid model—JIT for stable products, JIC for critical or volatile items. Relying solely on JIT is no longer a viable strategy.
You can’t eliminate uncertainty, but you can prepare for it. Here’s a summary table of 12 strategies you and your team can use to build resilience:
| # | Strategy | What You Can Do | Example/Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Map Your Core Operations | Identify every step from order to delivery and spot weak points | Create a process map and highlight bottlenecks |
| 2 | Assign Clear Owners | Make sure every process has a responsible person for performance and backup plans | Assign a backup for your warehouse manager |
| 3 | Practice & Cross-Train | Regularly test backups, run drills, and train staff for multiple roles | Run a “what if” scenario: key staff unavailable |
| 4 | Learn from Disruptions | After every issue, dig for root causes and update your processes | Hold a post-mortem after a major delay |
| 5 | Monitor the Market | Track global trends, competitors, and regulations to spot risks early | Set up Google Alerts for key suppliers/markets |
| 6 | Diversify Suppliers & Channels | Don’t rely on one supplier or shipping route—spread your risk | Source from at least two suppliers per key item |
| 7 | Build Strong Partnerships | Work closely with suppliers and logistics partners to solve problems together | Schedule regular check-ins with partners |
| 8 | Develop Multi-Layered Contingency Plans | Have detailed backup plans for major disruptions, with clear triggers and roles | Document and test your disaster recovery plan |
| 9 | Invest in Smart Forecasting | Use AI and real-time data to predict demand and spot trends early | Implement demand forecasting software |
| 10 | Design for Flexibility | Set up your supply chain to scale up or down quickly as demand changes | Use 3PLs for overflow capacity |
| 11 | Listen to Your Customers | Monitor feedback, reviews, and social media to catch issues and trends fast | Set up alerts for negative reviews |
| 12 | Automate & Use Cloud Tools | Adopt tech that reduces errors and gives you real-time visibility | Move inventory management to the cloud |
Next Step:
Pick one strategy to implement this month. Start small and build momentum.
Tracking the right metrics helps you see if your efforts are working. Here’s a summary table of KPIs you should monitor:
| Category | KPIs to Track & Why They Matter for Resilience |
|---|---|
| Cost & Profitability | Cost per order: A resilient operation manages costs even when faced with a disruption. A sudden spike here could indicate inefficiencies. Expedited shipping costs: High or rising costs in this area often signal a lack of preparedness or forecasting issues, forcing you to pay a premium to meet customer promises. Inventory holding costs: This metric helps balance your JIT vs. JIC strategy. A sharp increase might mean you're carrying too much unnecessary safety stock. Lost sales revenue: This is a direct measure of your failure to meet demand. A high number here shows your supply chain broke, leading to lost profit and market share. |
| Customer Satisfaction | On-time delivery rate: The most critical metric for customer trust. A sudden drop signals a major logistics breakdown that customers are feeling directly. Order accuracy: Resilient operations maintain accuracy even under pressure. A rise in errors indicates your processes are not robust enough to handle uncertainty. Complaint rate: This metric serves as an early warning system. A spike in complaints often points to a systemic issue (e.g., last-mile delays, poor packaging) that is just beginning to surface. Retention rate: A resilient operation that consistently meets customer expectations is more likely to keep those customers, especially when competitors fail to deliver. |
| Operational Efficiency | Delivery lead time: Measures the time from order placement to delivery. A consistent, low lead time shows your operation is lean and efficient. An unpredictable lead time signals a fragile supply chain. Order cycle time: This tracks the time from a customer clicking 'buy' to the order leaving your warehouse. A slow or unpredictable cycle time points to internal bottlenecks you can fix. Throughput (flow rate): The number of units processed per hour. This is a measure of your capacity to scale up during a sudden demand surge. A low throughput indicates a bottleneck that could hinder your ability to capture sales. |
| Inventory Health | Stockout rate: A direct measure of your failure to meet demand, indicating a lack of resilience in forecasting or supply. Overstock rate: A high rate here shows you were not flexible enough to respond to a drop in demand, leading to higher holding costs. Inventory turnover: Measures how quickly you sell your inventory. A healthy turnover rate indicates a good balance between a JIT-like lean approach and a JIC-style safety stock. Forecast error: This is a crucial leading indicator of resilience. By tracking how often your forecasts are wrong, you can see where you need to improve your data and planning. |
| Resilience & Adaptability | Supplier diversification index: A metric that shows how reliant you are on a single supplier. A score closer to 1 (perfect diversification) indicates you are less exposed to a single-point failure. Contingency plan readiness: A qualitative measure of how recently your backup plans were reviewed, tested, or updated. Tech adoption rate: Measures how quickly you are implementing new technologies (like AI or cloud tools) that enhance visibility and flexibility. Recovery time: The time it takes to return to a normal operational state after a major disruption. This is the ultimate test of your resilience. |
If you answered “no” to any of these, you have an opportunity to strengthen your operation.
Uncertainty is here to stay in e-commerce logistics. But you don’t have to be at its mercy. By understanding the types of risk you face and using the strategies above, you can build a supply chain that’s not just tough—but agile, innovative, and ready for anything.
You can start today: map your risks, get your team involved, and take one step toward a more resilient operation.
Implementing these strategies is a big step, but you don't have to take it alone. Having a strong partner can make all the difference.
That's where we come in. At Nippon Express, we've helped e-commerce brands like yours transform logistical uncertainty into a competitive advantage. We have a proven track record of scaling some of the world's largest e-commerce brands from the ground up. With our DCX Fulfillment platform, global network, and expert team, you'll receive unparalleled support and tools, refined by years of experience, to build a truly resilient operation.
Are you ready to build a supply chain that won't break? Contact us today to discuss your needs. We'd love to show you how we can help.
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